The Bookie's Bookie #7

11-02-12

The Official Nate Geez Gambling Newsletter


MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO KEEP YOUR SANITY


This edition of the newsletter is going to be short-n-sweet. According
to one of my readers (and somehow a trusted best friend), my pieces
are a bit wordy and daunting as a quick read. So I'll make an effort
to keep it clean and to the point from here on.

With that said, 2 more of my friends have abandoned their quests of
gambling greatness after last week. They were hit hard in different
ways by the capricious nature of wagering money on grown men playing
kid's games. One friend had a terrible betting day Saturday on CFB
only to abstain on betting Sunday because his losses were too great.
And of course he would have went 5 for 5 on his Sunday plays had he
made them. Salt on the wound. So he's throwing in the towel. The other
friend had so much working during the weekend that he couldn't keep
his emotions in check. That coupled with the energy he expends in
fantasy football has been depleting to his overall enjoyment of the
sport. Towel thrown.

The point I am highlighting is that the most important thing with
gambling on sports is to keep your sanity. It takes courage to isk
your hard-earned money on men/women who you've never met playing a
kid's game. A big-business kid's game, but none-the-less a kid's game.
It takes more discipline than the average person could understand to
not lose your mind with the swings in luck. So more important than
anything is to do whatever is necessary to keep things in perspective.
And for you to continually enjoy not just the action, but the sport
itself.

I do that mostly by not watching the games. On Sunday's I actually
listen to the radio-casts as opposed to watching tv. I get overwhelmed
if I go to a sports bar and try to catch up with friends while the
myriad of televisions, people and noise on a Sunday morning inundate
my senses. I tend to wait til after sunday to watch the games via NFL
rewind. And then, I skip a lot and focus on certain plays and aspects.
It keeps me sane. I have had the days when I have watched 9 hours of
football straight, lost all my bets and felt lower than low. So to
safeguard against that, I try to do whatever I can on game days to
keep my mind off of football. For example, this Sunday I will be
skydiving for the first time, while my bets are probably nose-diving.
You don't have to go to this extreme, but I recommend that you find
ways to keep things leveled. Because predicting how when team does
against another on a football field is anything but sane. So with that
said, here are my thoughts for week 9.

Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.

BEST BETS (0-3 last week, 3-10 season)

1) 3 team 7-point teaser
CAR +10
PIT +10
TB +8.5

I have had a tough 3 weeks with my best bets. But I am trying to keep
to the system. I believe the best use of the teaser is to get action
on the underdog in an evenly matched game. CAR is due for a win. They
play a WAS team whose defense has played like wind, allowing anyone to
move through them. PIT at NYG is a classic down to the last possession
game. And TB getting points in OAK is very indicative of the lack of
respect for a young, but maturing TB squad.

2) MIA/IND +43

This is just a favorable number. 5 TDs and 3 FGs cover this number. I
like it. MIA has the better defense but it is very suspect against the
pass. IND defense is suspect in general. I don't necessarily see a
shootout. But both teams should put up 20 points at least.

MoneyLine UPSET SPECIAL (0-2 last week, 4-8 season)

CAR +160
DAL +180
USC +175

Oh DAL, why do I keep coming back to you. Ok, this is almost like a
half court shot. DAL going to undefeated ATL and coming out with a win
seems highly improbable. Down right next to impossible with the way
how Tony Romo has been playing lately. But, hey, this is what makes
football, football. I honestly do think that DAL goes in and pulls out
the win. History is on their side. DAL has faced a 7-0 team three
times in their franchise history. Each time they have won. As for CAR,
as said above, they are just do for a win. And with the last one, I'm
being a homer and pulling for my alma mater. FIGHT ON!

ELIMINATION/SUICIDE PiCK

I really, really don't have any edge here. But if a gun was pointed at
me and I had to make a choice then I'd choose DET. I know, they aren't
really that good. And JAC isn't really as bad as they look, but DET
has been getting better each week. And it seems to be their m-o to
beat down on bad teams and play bad against good teams. I like DET as
the only sure thing, in my crazy mind of course, of the week.

-N8-