The Bookie's Bookie #3

10/5/12

The Official Nate Geez NFL gambling newsletter

The Lame-Game System

My cousin told me once that he had a buddy who used only one method to
pick-up women. No matter the woman, no matter the situation, his buddy
had one technique and he employed it religiously. Did not matter if it
was a young hottie or a sly cougar; co-worker or random stray; at the
bar, in a class or by the gym. This man had one system. Succeed or
fail, he lived by his system.

Unfortunately, according to my cousin, his system wasn't that
effective. My cousin, himself, had witnessed his buddy strike out
numerous times. Yet, he stuck to it. Admirable, but slavish. Ok, just
down right stupid. But still admirable. Takes guts to stick with your
system in the face of diminishing returns.

When asked why his buddy failed so often, my cousin simply responded
with, "he always used the Lame-Game approach." My cousin defined the
Lame-Game as coming on to a woman with a plethora of recycled,
formulaic insincere compliments and pick-up lines. Yup, definitely
stupid. Not so much admirable, as just ballsy, now that I think about
it. But the man knew his system.

Knowing your system in regards to wagering money on sports is
paramount. Before you go deep into the the hobby of football
handicapping, you have to know if you are a stats guy or a trends guy;
a double-digit underdog taker or a road favorite guy. You have to know
if you favor the analysts predictions on Espn or the debates among
your friends and local bartender. If you are an "unders" guy or
strictly "over" bettor.

And once you get that system, good, stick to it. Just don't be slavish about it.

Don't be the Lame-Game system guy.

Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.

BEST BETS (1-1 last week; 1-4 season)

1) BUF/SF +44.5

--> This is "priced" low. The number is more an over-reaction by
Vegas. SF shut out NYJ in New York and BUF got blasted at home by NE.
So the popular opinion is that SF will dominate this game and maybe
give up 10 points. I dont see it that way. This number should be
closer to 46, if not 47. As streaky as Ryan Fitzpatrick is, he still
gets points on the board for BUF. And as strong as SF is on defense,
they have a tough time with really good running backs (and BUF has
two). I see points scored a lot on both sides. Should be the most
entertaining game of the day. Take the over.

2) DEN +6.5

--> This is Brady v. Manning XIV (or it feels like it). Though DEN is
still essentially the same team that got blasted by NE in the playoffs
last year, I still think they put up a fight. NE  isnt as good as last
year. DEN is better. Manning doesn't get blown out, no matter what
uniform he wears. Take the points, enjoy the game. FG wins this one.

3) 3 leg 6 pt teaser
PHI +10.5
BUF +17
ATL +4

--> Whenever you get good teams with a + number bigger than a FG, take
it. That's  the simple explanation. PHI +10.5 is a no brainer because
they are underdogs this week without the tease. Won't happen often, so
take it when it does. BUF +17 is about as big a cushion you could get
for a .500 team. And ATL +4 takes the risk out because if they lose it
will be by a FG or less.

MONEYLINE UPSET SPECIALS (1-1 last week; 3-1 season)

SD +165
DEN +240

--> This week I see the AFC West surprising some folks out there. In
the case of SD/NO, I know that Brees will break a record and its on
primetime. Not to forget to mention that NO is just due for a win at
some point. The only problem I see for this is the match-up. SD
actually has a decent defense. And NO has none. Although Brees will
put 20+ points on the board, nothing I have seen suggests that NO will
stop SD from scoring 30, record breaking nights and all. For DEN/NE,
it's a reach on my part, but its so worth the risk. At +240 you are
getting almost 2 and 1/2 times your money on this single bet. And for
two teams that are pretty much matched evenly, I say take the risk.
Its worth the potential reward.

SUICIDE/ELIMINATION PICK

Again, I have no edge when it comes to picking this. But if I would
still be alive in my suicide pool I would be picking BAL to win this
week in KC. KC isn't as bad as their record suggests, they are just
limited at coaching and at QB. Ok, wait, if you don't have a quality
coach nor QB, you are as bad as your record suggests. Pick BAL.


-N8-