09/21/2012
FIRST THINGS FIRST: DON'T WAFFLE
Remember that commercial with Brett Favre. The one where he is buying a large screen TV. And he keeps flip flopping between two competing sets. He can't make up his mind, choosing one and then instantly reconsidering. Yet, the joke of the spot is his line of dialogue: "I hate it when people waffle." We all hate it when people waffle. And we experience them all the time. There's the waffler who finally gets to front of the line and still doesn't know what he wants to order even though the menu is limited to burgers and fries. Or the waffler on the freeway who jumps across one lane in stop-and-go traffic, just to skip back over before you can pass because that lane isn't moving either. Or my all-time favorite waffler, the friend who "doesn't care" where we go to hang out but as soon as we get there says "man, I didn't want to come here." The funniest waffler I've known was a friend who when we went CD shopping would instantly grab an arms full of CDs as we walked down the aisles. And then as we got closer to check-out, he would systematically discard CDs, one-by-one convincing himself that he didn't want them. Wafflers. No one likes them. Especially not the football gambling gods!
If there is one hard rule to learn when it comes to football betting it is: DON'T WAFFLE. Actually it applies to all other areas of life pretty well: buying a car, approaching a woman, selecting the perfect tie. You can't second guess yourself. Go with your gut. It is all that matters at the end of the day. Does it mean that you will always be right? Does it mean you'll buy the best car for you, score your dream girl's digits and match that double-breasted, tailored 2-piece with the perfect windsor? Who knows...No matter what you decide to do in anything, the best you will always have is a 50-50 shot. It either works out or it doesn't. There is no in between. Which means when you go with your gut at least you satisfy what's more important than being right. And that isbelieving in yourself.
When betting on the NFL, nothing is more perilous than second-guessing yourself. It takes courage to stand by what you predict. And takes even more to put your hard-earned money behind that prediction. You can read all the insiders tips, listen to what your buddies say (or in my case, my football guru of a chick) and you watch all the shows on the NFL Network, but in the end it comes to your own gut. And once you make up your mind. Once you say, I really like GB -3 or MIN +7.5, then go with it. Don't be swayed. Waffling costs.
Take my weekly wednesday trip to LV. This week the gambling gods smite me hard for my waffling. Here I was, doing all my research on said football guru chick's iPad at the LVH casino (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton), scribbling in multiple entry tickets for the SuperContest cauz I couldn't decide on my fifth game. 7, count it, 7 different forms I filled out and tossed cause I kept debating, kept second-guessing, kept waffling. All this did was eat up energy, make me doubt my four solid picks and most importantly kill time. I look up and have my "oh shit" moment: I have to get to the airport in 18 minutes for my flight and I haven't made any bets yet. So I panic. I start to dash. Two more scribbled and tossed entry forms before I finally settle on one. Quickly, I jot down all the numbers for the bets I promised to make for folks. I haphazardly and almost unconfidently select my B.O.W (bet of the week) and dash to the counter to place them. I look over my tickets make sure they match. Grab my bag and fly to the exit. Hop in a cab, tell the cabbie to step on it. Get through to the terminal and make it right to the gate just before final boarding call. I get to my seat, relax a little bit, "job well done, Nate." And then think to shut down the iPad for the flight when I realize,... uh oh,... I don't have the iPad. It's not in my bag. Not in my hand. It's...yes...damn it...its gone. Left behind. An effect of the mad dash. The resulting action of when someone waffles. Bum-mer.
The lesson learned in all of it: don't second guess yourself. Predicting the future is not a 100% guarantee... ever. In fact you will be more wrong than right. The key: go with what you believe. Cauz sooner or later you'll be right at the right time. And the gambling gods won't take an iPad as punishment :-)
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
The most solid plays this week:
1) 6-point 3 team teaser
SF +.5
ATL +9
NE +9
--> This is a no-brainer. I'm regretting that I didn't make this play at all in Vegas. I think MIN plays SF tight because both teams rely heavy on run-game, accurate passing and sound tackling. Its just that MIN doesn't excel in any of those but the first. As for NE and ATL, anytime you get 2 super bowl potentials as underdogs, take 'em. ATL and NE aren't going to be underdogs more than 3 times apiece this year. Grab em while you can.
2) PHI -3
--> I know, I know, everyone thinks I am a homer. Or that I am crazy. No way PHI goes to desert and fly by the suddenly vaulted defense of ARI. Well this was the only game that I really got a chance to look at game tape. And I believe that this is a true mismatch. The team speed of PHI at the skill positions will be difficult for ARI to control. Though I don't see PHI scoring 30+ per se, I do see them having at least 3 offensive TDs and a couple of FG tries. And mark my words, from what I have seen, PHI def is not what Kevin Kolb wants to see. Especially he finds himself down a couple of scores early. Could be a 6 sacks, 1 fumble lost, 1 INT game for the former bird. Oh and that INT has to go to Rodgers-Cromartie.
3) ATL/SD Over 47.5
--> Two near-elite QBs. Loads of skill position talent. Shaky run defenses. And bright Southern California sun. All equals shootout in my mind. Easy bet. Also, heavy consideration to money line play of ATL +155. I think ATL takes a September sweep of the AFC West to open 3-0. I mean, honestly, a Norv Turner team can't open 3-0. I mean, c'mon.
UPSET MoneyLine SPECIAL
JAC +3
TEN +3.5
--> It's the week that the AFC south gets some love. It could be the worst division in football. No doubts about that. But JAC poor performance against elite HOU is not telling of the whole team. They get back on track with a team that is limited in talent as well in IND. The TEN pick is a gamble. Yeah, I know, they look like shit these first two weeks. First NE and then SD. And i'm not saying that I think they beat DET. But I do feel that they will play them close at home. And that DET isn't as good as the public thinks and TEN is not as bad. When picking upsets you just need the right match ups and proper circumstances. TEN is due for a good performance from their running game. And DET run D is seriously bad. I say pick it. It's a long shot and unconventional. But pick it.
Survivor Pool
Um, I have no edge when it comes to this. 2 weeks into the season, and I am already on my 2nd strike in my pool. But if I am pressed to pick one solid winner, and I am to stay alive then I'm picking SF. Again, I think MIN puts up a fight. But not any closer power to finish off best team in the league.
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