The Official Nate Geez Gambling Newsletter
Play it like Big Boss Man
My cousin has a theory about the controlling forces that determine the outcomes of professional sporting events. He acknowledges that the participants on the field, the coaches on the sidelines and the referees in the middle are the main contributors to what will result after four quarters. And he fully admits that weather conditions, time of day, and fan support all play an integral role in what occurs. But his supreme belief, or superstition may it be, is that somewhere nestled in the far corner of the stadium, perched up high, is an all-knowing, all-seeing, and very much all-deciding power that governs everything in a game, including how a football actually spins. He calls this entity, Big Boss Man. And according to my cousin, if Big Boss Man wants your home team, your favorite player or your money bet to lose, then that is what will happen. Count on it. In said cousin's words, "they don't call him, Big Boss Man, for nothing."
Yeah I know what you are thinking. It is probably the same thing that I was. That I still do. That if there was such an entity, Big Boss Man, then he would be some old-ish chap, dressed in a white suit, wearing glasses and a cowboy hat and being some hilarious mixture of Boss Hog from the Dukes of Hazzards and the Colonel Sanders of KFC. The idea is pretty chuckle worthy. What's even funnier is my cousin's belief that somewhere at every football game, Big Boss Man sits and either gives a thumbs up or a thumbs down on major plays within the contest. And you thought that when the referee went under the hood he was looking at the replay. Nope. That's his direct link to Big Boss Man himself. (Side note: probably explains why so many reviewed calls still aren't correct... no wait, N8, you are not that superstitious... but still). Laugh, but every fan of sports at some point has questioned if fate, the universe or god were against his team's success. That's the fickle nature of humans and games played by humans.
It's not my goal to debate whether a Big Boss Man exists. Nor am I trying to disprove that fate, the universe or god has a hand in making your team come up short. All I want to do is find an angle to use. A method to take this way of thinking and apply it to making money. The thing that strikes me about the idea of Big Boss Man is that it's only employed when my cousin was on the losing side of the equation; the bad end of the stick. It's like a coping mechanism for the heartbreak of your team losing a tough game, or for you making a bad bet. It alleviates the pain a little bit. It was "never in the cards" for us to win. Pretty defeatist. And if anyone knows me, they know I'm positive. So instead of looking at it that way, I challenge you to stay positive. Operate as if it was meant to be in your favor. Make your bets as if you have no doubt your team(s) will win. Play it as Big Boss Man. As if you had power to control the outcome.
Ultimately you don't. But going in with that positivity is a win in itself. Do it enough and you will win. More often than not. And then maybe you'll go to a game. Buy a ticket in the last row. Dress in a white suit. And go thumbs up and thumbs down before plays for your own shits n giggles. So with that said, here's my thoughts for week 8.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
BEST BETS (1-1 last week, 3-7 season)
1) KC - 1.5
This is strictly a number play. OAK comes KC and by all the tape I've looked at is a pretty similar squad. Both teams have talented RBs and WRs but are plagued with inept QBs. And defensively, both teams have mastered the art of the "non-tackle." But it being just a number play, the most important one is that KC is 0-3 at home so far this year. And as bad as they have played, they will not go the entire year without winning at home. This is definitely one of those winnable games. Risky play? Yes, especially since OAK has won the last 3 times in KC, but coming off a bye KC will have a lot more going for them. A FG wins this.
2) NO/DEN +55.5
I usually hate picking high point totals but this game seems low to me. Vegas has yet to put up a number higher than 56 for a regular season game in recent memory, if ever. And this game should have challenged it. If I were a bookie, I would have made this line 59. Yes, it seems too obvious that this game will be a shootout. But sometimes, a lemon is just a lemon. Take the layup. The few times the defenses will look good in this game is pre game warm-ups and coming back from commercial breaks.
3) 3 Team 7-point Teaser
ATL +10
MIA +9.5
NO +13
I'm convinced that the key to the teaser isn't getting a favorited team down to a low number, but an equally good underdog at a higher positive. All three teams about can win their respective contests. And likelihood that any of them gets blown out will just depend on how Big Boss Man spins the ball. But, I foresee hard fought contests in all three. Meaning very close games, down to the last possession. It's my teaser MO.
MoneyLine UPSET SPECIAL (1-2 last week, 4-6 season)
DAL +115
WAS +190
Um, do I get any credit for picking TB +250 yesterday?!?!?!! Didn't think so. Ok, the money in my pocket will have to be enough... This is the NFC East upset week. DAL is at home and finally puts an end to Eli Manning's domination in big D. Though I feel that DAL is not playing there best ball, it's coming around the corner. Nothing gets a team going then playing the reigning champs. This year I think DAL just has NYG number. It is mainly because Romo seems to enjoy playing against the NYG secondary. I expect him to have another big game. As for WAS, they almost pulled off the upset against NYG last week. And though they will be in PIT, which is tough for any NFC team to win at, I feel that they can exploit the absence of Troy Palomalu. This is going to be a shootout. At some point WAS beats a team with a winning record. This is that week.
SUICIDE/ELIMINATION POOL
As I have said I have no edge in this part of my game... yet. But, if I had to pick just one team to win this week, the first thing I wouldn't do is pick SD. That is a trap game if I ever saw one. It seems like the easy lay-up for the week. A superior SD team goes to a weak CLE team to beat them down. I can see it now, how many people will ride Phillip Rivers for the easy win. Don't do it!! I'm not saying CLE wins but my football sense says this game isn't as simple as it looks. West coast team traveling east, secretly decent performing "bad-team" at home and a not as good as everyone thinks team equals potential disaster. Truthfully, if I was still alive in my suicide pool I would steer clear of Rivers and SD in general. So who would I pick? I'd pick CHI. I think this is going to be a fun game. And that CAR will play them tough. But CHI defense is the best in the game.
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