The Official Nate Geez Gambling Newsletter
If You Make A Great Play, But It's Not Recorded, Did It Ever Exist?...
So, I did not get my weekly edition of this newsletter up last week. I apologize for those who actually enjoy these little pieces. For those that I am annoying with these emails, well, thanks for being my friend and hey, you got a week off! Having finished my move and making major changes to my day-to-day life, I can promise that last week will be the only time I miss a newsletter entry for the rest of the season. Well, that is, if I can prove that my wins last week weren't a fluke.
Is it coincidence that last week that, while missing the chance to put to record all my selections, every one of my bets hit. I went 3 for 3, even hitting my upset special. All for nice tidy return on a very minimal investment. But, did it really happen? Sure I can tell you now that I made the play to pick both NYG and GB moneyline on the road and cashed in nicely but where's my proof. That ticket is already cashed in at the LVH casino. So again, did it really happen?!?! I even went a whopping 4-1 in the SuperContest, tying my best week yet. Coincidence?!
That has led me to examine a few things about this hobby I so deeply enjoy. The first, and perhaps the most important nugget of knowledges, is that it shouldn't matter if anyone else finds out about your win. That's not why I am doing this. Sure you can share your good news: tell your buddies about how you knew DAL/BAL was a sure fire OVER or brag to the local bartender how NYJ -3 was the easiest pick of the week. But really, is it important that you tell them? And though it's fun to toss around the idea that you "know" football, and believe me no one really "knows" football, at base of it, you gamble not to be heralded as a clairvoyant, but just to make money. That is all that it is about. Make money. Win. No matter if it's recorded or not. Real professionals don't need the accolades and don't need to brag. They just want to succeed. Win.
Oh, and the second, not-so-important, thing I had to examine was if I should still write this newsletter, since the best week I had all year was when I didn't... we gamblers are a superstitious lot. Tempting, but I want to see this newsletter through. So with that said, here's my thoughts on week 7.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun!
BEST BETS (2-6 season)
1) 2 leg 7-point Teaser:
NE -3.5
CIN +8
I know the play on a 2 team teaser is a losing bet. And normally I try to stay away from any bet where you'd not win at least 90% of the money risked back. But this week was pretty slim pickings for me to find games that I had a strong lean on (could also be a result from the inability to watch any game tape for the past 2 weeks). My take on NYJ/NE is that this is a total mismatch. Just looking at it from a positions group the only real advantage that NYJ has over NE is in NYJ kickoff return vs NE coverage. But now, it's possible that NYJ most explosive weapon, Joe Mcknight, will not even suit up. Not good for the Sanchezes or the Tebowes (whomever you hate least). I don't think this game will be close at all. Top that off with a very pissed off Brady at home and you have a romp. Consider the play of NE -10.5. It'd better if it was just -10, though. As for PIT/CIN, I am sticking to my theory of taking a good team with +/plus points. And PIT doesn't have the defense to blow anyone out.
2) BAL/HOU +48.5
Yes, it is a pretty high point total, especially for two teams known to have lights out defense. But perception doesn't always define reality. BAL hasn't played good defense all year. And it will only get worse now that the lost team leader and overall Mr Raven himself, intense ol' Ray Ray. They haven't stopped anyone. I don't see that happening this week. And then there's HOU, who many regard as one of the top 3 defenses in the league. Um, someone forgot to tell Aaron Rodgers that last Sunday night. A Rodg exposed the problems HOU will have trying to identify proper defensive reads without their captain Brian Cushing. Plus, the deep ball is there against HOU. Expect Torrey Smith to have a great game,... provided Flacco can get him the ball.
MONEYLINE UPSET SPECIAL (3-3 season)
TEN +135
BAL +200
WAS +180
I know that it seems like I give a lot of love to a very underwhelming team in TEN. I don't mean to. I still think they are in the bottom third of the league. But in this matchup, I very much like them to win. Not just the fact that TEN has a history of beating BUF (cue NFL Films edition of the Music City Miracle) or that TEN just upset PIT two Thursdays ago, but TEN with Matt Hasselbeck behind center matches up well against a very, very bad BUF defense. Expect lots of scoring and little tackling. As for BAL, I am throwing up a half-court heave. They are currently a 6.5 point underdog to HOU. And Joe Flacco is terrible on the road. Let me say that again, JOE FLACCO IS TERRIBLE ON THE ROAD. That said, I still think this is a close game, with the team who has the better kicker winning this one. I take the rookie on BAL. And then there is WAS/NYG. This isn't so much a long shot as it is just plain football common sense. NYG goes to SF and embarrassingly beats the best team in the conference only to come back home and look just as embarrassing against a lesser foe. Happens all the time.
SUICIDE/ELIMINATION PICK
Again, I have no edge in this type of competition. But if I had to be pressed to pick a team that I felt very strongly about winning, then I would go with Drew Brees and NO off of the bye. I know they have totally underperformed all year (and they were the team that I used week 1 in my elimination pool) but they have actually been playing solid football the past 3 games. Though this game will be close, I see NO climbing out of the basement with this hard fought win.
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