11-02-12
The Official Nate Geez Gambling Newsletter
MOST IMPORTANT THING IS TO KEEP YOUR SANITY
This edition of the newsletter is going to be short-n-sweet. According
to one of my readers (and somehow a trusted best friend), my pieces
are a bit wordy and daunting as a quick read. So I'll make an effort
to keep it clean and to the point from here on.
With that said, 2 more of my friends have abandoned their quests of
gambling greatness after last week. They were hit hard in different
ways by the capricious nature of wagering money on grown men playing
kid's games. One friend had a terrible betting day Saturday on CFB
only to abstain on betting Sunday because his losses were too great.
And of course he would have went 5 for 5 on his Sunday plays had he
made them. Salt on the wound. So he's throwing in the towel. The other
friend had so much working during the weekend that he couldn't keep
his emotions in check. That coupled with the energy he expends in
fantasy football has been depleting to his overall enjoyment of the
sport. Towel thrown.
The point I am highlighting is that the most important thing with
gambling on sports is to keep your sanity. It takes courage to isk
your hard-earned money on men/women who you've never met playing a
kid's game. A big-business kid's game, but none-the-less a kid's game.
It takes more discipline than the average person could understand to
not lose your mind with the swings in luck. So more important than
anything is to do whatever is necessary to keep things in perspective.
And for you to continually enjoy not just the action, but the sport
itself.
I do that mostly by not watching the games. On Sunday's I actually
listen to the radio-casts as opposed to watching tv. I get overwhelmed
if I go to a sports bar and try to catch up with friends while the
myriad of televisions, people and noise on a Sunday morning inundate
my senses. I tend to wait til after sunday to watch the games via NFL
rewind. And then, I skip a lot and focus on certain plays and aspects.
It keeps me sane. I have had the days when I have watched 9 hours of
football straight, lost all my bets and felt lower than low. So to
safeguard against that, I try to do whatever I can on game days to
keep my mind off of football. For example, this Sunday I will be
skydiving for the first time, while my bets are probably nose-diving.
You don't have to go to this extreme, but I recommend that you find
ways to keep things leveled. Because predicting how when team does
against another on a football field is anything but sane. So with that
said, here are my thoughts for week 9.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
BEST BETS (0-3 last week, 3-10 season)
1) 3 team 7-point teaser
CAR +10
PIT +10
TB +8.5
I have had a tough 3 weeks with my best bets. But I am trying to keep
to the system. I believe the best use of the teaser is to get action
on the underdog in an evenly matched game. CAR is due for a win. They
play a WAS team whose defense has played like wind, allowing anyone to
move through them. PIT at NYG is a classic down to the last possession
game. And TB getting points in OAK is very indicative of the lack of
respect for a young, but maturing TB squad.
2) MIA/IND +43
This is just a favorable number. 5 TDs and 3 FGs cover this number. I
like it. MIA has the better defense but it is very suspect against the
pass. IND defense is suspect in general. I don't necessarily see a
shootout. But both teams should put up 20 points at least.
MoneyLine UPSET SPECIAL (0-2 last week, 4-8 season)
CAR +160
DAL +180
USC +175
Oh DAL, why do I keep coming back to you. Ok, this is almost like a
half court shot. DAL going to undefeated ATL and coming out with a win
seems highly improbable. Down right next to impossible with the way
how Tony Romo has been playing lately. But, hey, this is what makes
football, football. I honestly do think that DAL goes in and pulls out
the win. History is on their side. DAL has faced a 7-0 team three
times in their franchise history. Each time they have won. As for CAR,
as said above, they are just do for a win. And with the last one, I'm
being a homer and pulling for my alma mater. FIGHT ON!
ELIMINATION/SUICIDE PiCK
I really, really don't have any edge here. But if a gun was pointed at
me and I had to make a choice then I'd choose DET. I know, they aren't
really that good. And JAC isn't really as bad as they look, but DET
has been getting better each week. And it seems to be their m-o to
beat down on bad teams and play bad against good teams. I like DET as
the only sure thing, in my crazy mind of course, of the week.
-N8-
Friday, November 2, 2012
The Bookie's Bookie #6
10-26-12
The Official Nate Geez Gambling Newsletter
Play it like Big Boss Man
My cousin has a theory about the controlling forces that determine the outcomes of professional sporting events. He acknowledges that the participants on the field, the coaches on the sidelines and the referees in the middle are the main contributors to what will result after four quarters. And he fully admits that weather conditions, time of day, and fan support all play an integral role in what occurs. But his supreme belief, or superstition may it be, is that somewhere nestled in the far corner of the stadium, perched up high, is an all-knowing, all-seeing, and very much all-deciding power that governs everything in a game, including how a football actually spins. He calls this entity, Big Boss Man. And according to my cousin, if Big Boss Man wants your home team, your favorite player or your money bet to lose, then that is what will happen. Count on it. In said cousin's words, "they don't call him, Big Boss Man, for nothing."
Yeah I know what you are thinking. It is probably the same thing that I was. That I still do. That if there was such an entity, Big Boss Man, then he would be some old-ish chap, dressed in a white suit, wearing glasses and a cowboy hat and being some hilarious mixture of Boss Hog from the Dukes of Hazzards and the Colonel Sanders of KFC. The idea is pretty chuckle worthy. What's even funnier is my cousin's belief that somewhere at every football game, Big Boss Man sits and either gives a thumbs up or a thumbs down on major plays within the contest. And you thought that when the referee went under the hood he was looking at the replay. Nope. That's his direct link to Big Boss Man himself. (Side note: probably explains why so many reviewed calls still aren't correct... no wait, N8, you are not that superstitious... but still). Laugh, but every fan of sports at some point has questioned if fate, the universe or god were against his team's success. That's the fickle nature of humans and games played by humans.
It's not my goal to debate whether a Big Boss Man exists. Nor am I trying to disprove that fate, the universe or god has a hand in making your team come up short. All I want to do is find an angle to use. A method to take this way of thinking and apply it to making money. The thing that strikes me about the idea of Big Boss Man is that it's only employed when my cousin was on the losing side of the equation; the bad end of the stick. It's like a coping mechanism for the heartbreak of your team losing a tough game, or for you making a bad bet. It alleviates the pain a little bit. It was "never in the cards" for us to win. Pretty defeatist. And if anyone knows me, they know I'm positive. So instead of looking at it that way, I challenge you to stay positive. Operate as if it was meant to be in your favor. Make your bets as if you have no doubt your team(s) will win. Play it as Big Boss Man. As if you had power to control the outcome.
Ultimately you don't. But going in with that positivity is a win in itself. Do it enough and you will win. More often than not. And then maybe you'll go to a game. Buy a ticket in the last row. Dress in a white suit. And go thumbs up and thumbs down before plays for your own shits n giggles. So with that said, here's my thoughts for week 8.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
BEST BETS (1-1 last week, 3-7 season)
1) KC - 1.5
This is strictly a number play. OAK comes KC and by all the tape I've looked at is a pretty similar squad. Both teams have talented RBs and WRs but are plagued with inept QBs. And defensively, both teams have mastered the art of the "non-tackle." But it being just a number play, the most important one is that KC is 0-3 at home so far this year. And as bad as they have played, they will not go the entire year without winning at home. This is definitely one of those winnable games. Risky play? Yes, especially since OAK has won the last 3 times in KC, but coming off a bye KC will have a lot more going for them. A FG wins this.
2) NO/DEN +55.5
I usually hate picking high point totals but this game seems low to me. Vegas has yet to put up a number higher than 56 for a regular season game in recent memory, if ever. And this game should have challenged it. If I were a bookie, I would have made this line 59. Yes, it seems too obvious that this game will be a shootout. But sometimes, a lemon is just a lemon. Take the layup. The few times the defenses will look good in this game is pre game warm-ups and coming back from commercial breaks.
3) 3 Team 7-point Teaser
ATL +10
MIA +9.5
NO +13
I'm convinced that the key to the teaser isn't getting a favorited team down to a low number, but an equally good underdog at a higher positive. All three teams about can win their respective contests. And likelihood that any of them gets blown out will just depend on how Big Boss Man spins the ball. But, I foresee hard fought contests in all three. Meaning very close games, down to the last possession. It's my teaser MO.
MoneyLine UPSET SPECIAL (1-2 last week, 4-6 season)
DAL +115
WAS +190
Um, do I get any credit for picking TB +250 yesterday?!?!?!! Didn't think so. Ok, the money in my pocket will have to be enough... This is the NFC East upset week. DAL is at home and finally puts an end to Eli Manning's domination in big D. Though I feel that DAL is not playing there best ball, it's coming around the corner. Nothing gets a team going then playing the reigning champs. This year I think DAL just has NYG number. It is mainly because Romo seems to enjoy playing against the NYG secondary. I expect him to have another big game. As for WAS, they almost pulled off the upset against NYG last week. And though they will be in PIT, which is tough for any NFC team to win at, I feel that they can exploit the absence of Troy Palomalu. This is going to be a shootout. At some point WAS beats a team with a winning record. This is that week.
SUICIDE/ELIMINATION POOL
As I have said I have no edge in this part of my game... yet. But, if I had to pick just one team to win this week, the first thing I wouldn't do is pick SD. That is a trap game if I ever saw one. It seems like the easy lay-up for the week. A superior SD team goes to a weak CLE team to beat them down. I can see it now, how many people will ride Phillip Rivers for the easy win. Don't do it!! I'm not saying CLE wins but my football sense says this game isn't as simple as it looks. West coast team traveling east, secretly decent performing "bad-team" at home and a not as good as everyone thinks team equals potential disaster. Truthfully, if I was still alive in my suicide pool I would steer clear of Rivers and SD in general. So who would I pick? I'd pick CHI. I think this is going to be a fun game. And that CAR will play them tough. But CHI defense is the best in the game.
The Bookie's Bookie #5
10-19-12
The Official Nate Geez Gambling Newsletter
If You Make A Great Play, But It's Not Recorded, Did It Ever Exist?...
So, I did not get my weekly edition of this newsletter up last week. I apologize for those who actually enjoy these little pieces. For those that I am annoying with these emails, well, thanks for being my friend and hey, you got a week off! Having finished my move and making major changes to my day-to-day life, I can promise that last week will be the only time I miss a newsletter entry for the rest of the season. Well, that is, if I can prove that my wins last week weren't a fluke.
Is it coincidence that last week that, while missing the chance to put to record all my selections, every one of my bets hit. I went 3 for 3, even hitting my upset special. All for nice tidy return on a very minimal investment. But, did it really happen? Sure I can tell you now that I made the play to pick both NYG and GB moneyline on the road and cashed in nicely but where's my proof. That ticket is already cashed in at the LVH casino. So again, did it really happen?!?! I even went a whopping 4-1 in the SuperContest, tying my best week yet. Coincidence?!
That has led me to examine a few things about this hobby I so deeply enjoy. The first, and perhaps the most important nugget of knowledges, is that it shouldn't matter if anyone else finds out about your win. That's not why I am doing this. Sure you can share your good news: tell your buddies about how you knew DAL/BAL was a sure fire OVER or brag to the local bartender how NYJ -3 was the easiest pick of the week. But really, is it important that you tell them? And though it's fun to toss around the idea that you "know" football, and believe me no one really "knows" football, at base of it, you gamble not to be heralded as a clairvoyant, but just to make money. That is all that it is about. Make money. Win. No matter if it's recorded or not. Real professionals don't need the accolades and don't need to brag. They just want to succeed. Win.
Oh, and the second, not-so-important, thing I had to examine was if I should still write this newsletter, since the best week I had all year was when I didn't... we gamblers are a superstitious lot. Tempting, but I want to see this newsletter through. So with that said, here's my thoughts on week 7.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun!
BEST BETS (2-6 season)
1) 2 leg 7-point Teaser:
NE -3.5
CIN +8
I know the play on a 2 team teaser is a losing bet. And normally I try to stay away from any bet where you'd not win at least 90% of the money risked back. But this week was pretty slim pickings for me to find games that I had a strong lean on (could also be a result from the inability to watch any game tape for the past 2 weeks). My take on NYJ/NE is that this is a total mismatch. Just looking at it from a positions group the only real advantage that NYJ has over NE is in NYJ kickoff return vs NE coverage. But now, it's possible that NYJ most explosive weapon, Joe Mcknight, will not even suit up. Not good for the Sanchezes or the Tebowes (whomever you hate least). I don't think this game will be close at all. Top that off with a very pissed off Brady at home and you have a romp. Consider the play of NE -10.5. It'd better if it was just -10, though. As for PIT/CIN, I am sticking to my theory of taking a good team with +/plus points. And PIT doesn't have the defense to blow anyone out.
2) BAL/HOU +48.5
Yes, it is a pretty high point total, especially for two teams known to have lights out defense. But perception doesn't always define reality. BAL hasn't played good defense all year. And it will only get worse now that the lost team leader and overall Mr Raven himself, intense ol' Ray Ray. They haven't stopped anyone. I don't see that happening this week. And then there's HOU, who many regard as one of the top 3 defenses in the league. Um, someone forgot to tell Aaron Rodgers that last Sunday night. A Rodg exposed the problems HOU will have trying to identify proper defensive reads without their captain Brian Cushing. Plus, the deep ball is there against HOU. Expect Torrey Smith to have a great game,... provided Flacco can get him the ball.
MONEYLINE UPSET SPECIAL (3-3 season)
TEN +135
BAL +200
WAS +180
I know that it seems like I give a lot of love to a very underwhelming team in TEN. I don't mean to. I still think they are in the bottom third of the league. But in this matchup, I very much like them to win. Not just the fact that TEN has a history of beating BUF (cue NFL Films edition of the Music City Miracle) or that TEN just upset PIT two Thursdays ago, but TEN with Matt Hasselbeck behind center matches up well against a very, very bad BUF defense. Expect lots of scoring and little tackling. As for BAL, I am throwing up a half-court heave. They are currently a 6.5 point underdog to HOU. And Joe Flacco is terrible on the road. Let me say that again, JOE FLACCO IS TERRIBLE ON THE ROAD. That said, I still think this is a close game, with the team who has the better kicker winning this one. I take the rookie on BAL. And then there is WAS/NYG. This isn't so much a long shot as it is just plain football common sense. NYG goes to SF and embarrassingly beats the best team in the conference only to come back home and look just as embarrassing against a lesser foe. Happens all the time.
SUICIDE/ELIMINATION PICK
Again, I have no edge in this type of competition. But if I had to be pressed to pick a team that I felt very strongly about winning, then I would go with Drew Brees and NO off of the bye. I know they have totally underperformed all year (and they were the team that I used week 1 in my elimination pool) but they have actually been playing solid football the past 3 games. Though this game will be close, I see NO climbing out of the basement with this hard fought win.
The Bookie's Bookie #3
10/5/12
The Official Nate Geez NFL gambling newsletter
The Lame-Game System
My cousin told me once that he had a buddy who used only one method to
pick-up women. No matter the woman, no matter the situation, his buddy
had one technique and he employed it religiously. Did not matter if it
was a young hottie or a sly cougar; co-worker or random stray; at the
bar, in a class or by the gym. This man had one system. Succeed or
fail, he lived by his system.
Unfortunately, according to my cousin, his system wasn't that
effective. My cousin, himself, had witnessed his buddy strike out
numerous times. Yet, he stuck to it. Admirable, but slavish. Ok, just
down right stupid. But still admirable. Takes guts to stick with your
system in the face of diminishing returns.
When asked why his buddy failed so often, my cousin simply responded
with, "he always used the Lame-Game approach." My cousin defined the
Lame-Game as coming on to a woman with a plethora of recycled,
formulaic insincere compliments and pick-up lines. Yup, definitely
stupid. Not so much admirable, as just ballsy, now that I think about
it. But the man knew his system.
Knowing your system in regards to wagering money on sports is
paramount. Before you go deep into the the hobby of football
handicapping, you have to know if you are a stats guy or a trends guy;
a double-digit underdog taker or a road favorite guy. You have to know
if you favor the analysts predictions on Espn or the debates among
your friends and local bartender. If you are an "unders" guy or
strictly "over" bettor.
And once you get that system, good, stick to it. Just don't be slavish about it.
Don't be the Lame-Game system guy.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
BEST BETS (1-1 last week; 1-4 season)
1) BUF/SF +44.5
--> This is "priced" low. The number is more an over-reaction by
Vegas. SF shut out NYJ in New York and BUF got blasted at home by NE.
So the popular opinion is that SF will dominate this game and maybe
give up 10 points. I dont see it that way. This number should be
closer to 46, if not 47. As streaky as Ryan Fitzpatrick is, he still
gets points on the board for BUF. And as strong as SF is on defense,
they have a tough time with really good running backs (and BUF has
two). I see points scored a lot on both sides. Should be the most
entertaining game of the day. Take the over.
2) DEN +6.5
--> This is Brady v. Manning XIV (or it feels like it). Though DEN is
still essentially the same team that got blasted by NE in the playoffs
last year, I still think they put up a fight. NE isnt as good as last
year. DEN is better. Manning doesn't get blown out, no matter what
uniform he wears. Take the points, enjoy the game. FG wins this one.
3) 3 leg 6 pt teaser
PHI +10.5
BUF +17
ATL +4
--> Whenever you get good teams with a + number bigger than a FG, take
it. That's the simple explanation. PHI +10.5 is a no brainer because
they are underdogs this week without the tease. Won't happen often, so
take it when it does. BUF +17 is about as big a cushion you could get
for a .500 team. And ATL +4 takes the risk out because if they lose it
will be by a FG or less.
MONEYLINE UPSET SPECIALS (1-1 last week; 3-1 season)
SD +165
DEN +240
--> This week I see the AFC West surprising some folks out there. In
the case of SD/NO, I know that Brees will break a record and its on
primetime. Not to forget to mention that NO is just due for a win at
some point. The only problem I see for this is the match-up. SD
actually has a decent defense. And NO has none. Although Brees will
put 20+ points on the board, nothing I have seen suggests that NO will
stop SD from scoring 30, record breaking nights and all. For DEN/NE,
it's a reach on my part, but its so worth the risk. At +240 you are
getting almost 2 and 1/2 times your money on this single bet. And for
two teams that are pretty much matched evenly, I say take the risk.
Its worth the potential reward.
SUICIDE/ELIMINATION PICK
Again, I have no edge when it comes to picking this. But if I would
still be alive in my suicide pool I would be picking BAL to win this
week in KC. KC isn't as bad as their record suggests, they are just
limited at coaching and at QB. Ok, wait, if you don't have a quality
coach nor QB, you are as bad as your record suggests. Pick BAL.
-N8-
The Official Nate Geez NFL gambling newsletter
The Lame-Game System
My cousin told me once that he had a buddy who used only one method to
pick-up women. No matter the woman, no matter the situation, his buddy
had one technique and he employed it religiously. Did not matter if it
was a young hottie or a sly cougar; co-worker or random stray; at the
bar, in a class or by the gym. This man had one system. Succeed or
fail, he lived by his system.
Unfortunately, according to my cousin, his system wasn't that
effective. My cousin, himself, had witnessed his buddy strike out
numerous times. Yet, he stuck to it. Admirable, but slavish. Ok, just
down right stupid. But still admirable. Takes guts to stick with your
system in the face of diminishing returns.
When asked why his buddy failed so often, my cousin simply responded
with, "he always used the Lame-Game approach." My cousin defined the
Lame-Game as coming on to a woman with a plethora of recycled,
formulaic insincere compliments and pick-up lines. Yup, definitely
stupid. Not so much admirable, as just ballsy, now that I think about
it. But the man knew his system.
Knowing your system in regards to wagering money on sports is
paramount. Before you go deep into the the hobby of football
handicapping, you have to know if you are a stats guy or a trends guy;
a double-digit underdog taker or a road favorite guy. You have to know
if you favor the analysts predictions on Espn or the debates among
your friends and local bartender. If you are an "unders" guy or
strictly "over" bettor.
And once you get that system, good, stick to it. Just don't be slavish about it.
Don't be the Lame-Game system guy.
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
BEST BETS (1-1 last week; 1-4 season)
1) BUF/SF +44.5
--> This is "priced" low. The number is more an over-reaction by
Vegas. SF shut out NYJ in New York and BUF got blasted at home by NE.
So the popular opinion is that SF will dominate this game and maybe
give up 10 points. I dont see it that way. This number should be
closer to 46, if not 47. As streaky as Ryan Fitzpatrick is, he still
gets points on the board for BUF. And as strong as SF is on defense,
they have a tough time with really good running backs (and BUF has
two). I see points scored a lot on both sides. Should be the most
entertaining game of the day. Take the over.
2) DEN +6.5
--> This is Brady v. Manning XIV (or it feels like it). Though DEN is
still essentially the same team that got blasted by NE in the playoffs
last year, I still think they put up a fight. NE isnt as good as last
year. DEN is better. Manning doesn't get blown out, no matter what
uniform he wears. Take the points, enjoy the game. FG wins this one.
3) 3 leg 6 pt teaser
PHI +10.5
BUF +17
ATL +4
--> Whenever you get good teams with a + number bigger than a FG, take
it. That's the simple explanation. PHI +10.5 is a no brainer because
they are underdogs this week without the tease. Won't happen often, so
take it when it does. BUF +17 is about as big a cushion you could get
for a .500 team. And ATL +4 takes the risk out because if they lose it
will be by a FG or less.
MONEYLINE UPSET SPECIALS (1-1 last week; 3-1 season)
SD +165
DEN +240
--> This week I see the AFC West surprising some folks out there. In
the case of SD/NO, I know that Brees will break a record and its on
primetime. Not to forget to mention that NO is just due for a win at
some point. The only problem I see for this is the match-up. SD
actually has a decent defense. And NO has none. Although Brees will
put 20+ points on the board, nothing I have seen suggests that NO will
stop SD from scoring 30, record breaking nights and all. For DEN/NE,
it's a reach on my part, but its so worth the risk. At +240 you are
getting almost 2 and 1/2 times your money on this single bet. And for
two teams that are pretty much matched evenly, I say take the risk.
Its worth the potential reward.
SUICIDE/ELIMINATION PICK
Again, I have no edge when it comes to picking this. But if I would
still be alive in my suicide pool I would be picking BAL to win this
week in KC. KC isn't as bad as their record suggests, they are just
limited at coaching and at QB. Ok, wait, if you don't have a quality
coach nor QB, you are as bad as your record suggests. Pick BAL.
-N8-
The Bookie's Bookie #2
WHAT THE DOCTOR Rx's
So, bad weeks happen. You can't live life without a run of bad luck,
bad decisions and bad energy. It hurts more when it's a unfair
combination of all three. But that's life. The only bad move you can
make when in the midst of a string of tough moments is to sit back and
do nothing.
I had such a week. Nothing went right for me. It was well documented.
And my gambling decisions were not exempt. The topper of course being
one of the hundreds of thousands (if not millions) who had wagers on
GB -3 on Monday night. I picked them in the SuperContest. And they
were the deciding game for me in having a plus .500 week. No go. Bad
luck or bad call. It doesn't matter. It was the proverbial nail in the
coffin for my week.
My initial reaction was to not think about football. To cancel my
subscription to NFL rewind. To make a vow not to watch anymore and be
done with it in total. Screw the $1500 for the SuperContest. Screw my
plane tickets. Screw it. But then it hit me: go back, learn from it,
do better. Bitter pill to swallow after losing x amount of dollars, an
iPad and your sanity (thank you replacement refs). But it is indeed
the prescription to combat the mojo. Go back, learn from it, do
better. And before I closed the day on Monday, I was back at the desk
watching game tape and taking notes.
This is what I got this week. Hope it helps. Good luck!
Best Bets (Last Week 0-3; Season 0-3)
1) SINGLE BET
HOU -12
--> I normally shy away from big spreads. Especially when they deal
with division rivals. No matter the difference in talent, division
rivals always play tough (re: CLE vs BAL last night). However, I stick
to my process. And my reviewing of game tape has told me that there
exists a big divide between TEN and HOU. I argued that HOU has the
best offense in the league before the season starts. From what I've
seen, I feel even more confident about that statement. And though I
picked TEN to upset DET, upon further review of that team, I'm
convinced that they are a bad team masquerading as a decent team. I
think this game is 30-13.
One stat to back up the prediction: TEN has given up at least 4 TDs a
game. They have scored a total of 4 offensive TDs for the season. Bad
math for TEN fans.
2) PARLAY:
CAR/ATL Over 48.5
NO/GB Over 54.5
NYG/PHI Over 47
--> Talk about getting what the doctor ordered to cure your ills. CAR
gets to go against a very suspect run defense down in the Georgia
Dome. Expect TDs in that game on the ground from Cam. GB gets to take
out their frustrations from Monday night on the worst defense in the
league. Aaron rodgers might have 4 passing TDs in the first half. And
PHI gets to wipe the stink fro the ARI game by taking deep shots on a
hurt NYG secondary.
MoneyLine UPSET SPECIAL (Last Week 2-0; Season 2-0)
MIA +220
WAS +140
--> I'm not sold on ARI. I know they are playing solid. And they are
the hottest team in football with an underrated defense. They could
indeed be this year's version of SF 2011. But I think at some point
the plug will come out, the lights will go on, the jig will be up etc.
and why not MIA? They are one make able FG from riding a 2 game
winning streak. Plus I feel MIA defense is every bit as good. Look for
an ugly game. MIA 17 - ARI 16.
WAS as an upset is mainly because I am predicting an RG 3 bounce back.
WAS will contend for the last playoff spot in the NFC. TB will not.
And bettors note: it's always good to take a road dog when the home
team can never sellout a game.
SURVIVOR Pick (Last Week 0-1; Season 0-1)
--> 3 weeks, 3 strikes. I'm already out of my survivor pool. Again, I
re-emphasize I have no edge when it comes to this. But since I
started, I'll keep it going. GB is the call. Rodgers won't let them
start 1-3.
-N8-
So, bad weeks happen. You can't live life without a run of bad luck,
bad decisions and bad energy. It hurts more when it's a unfair
combination of all three. But that's life. The only bad move you can
make when in the midst of a string of tough moments is to sit back and
do nothing.
I had such a week. Nothing went right for me. It was well documented.
And my gambling decisions were not exempt. The topper of course being
one of the hundreds of thousands (if not millions) who had wagers on
GB -3 on Monday night. I picked them in the SuperContest. And they
were the deciding game for me in having a plus .500 week. No go. Bad
luck or bad call. It doesn't matter. It was the proverbial nail in the
coffin for my week.
My initial reaction was to not think about football. To cancel my
subscription to NFL rewind. To make a vow not to watch anymore and be
done with it in total. Screw the $1500 for the SuperContest. Screw my
plane tickets. Screw it. But then it hit me: go back, learn from it,
do better. Bitter pill to swallow after losing x amount of dollars, an
iPad and your sanity (thank you replacement refs). But it is indeed
the prescription to combat the mojo. Go back, learn from it, do
better. And before I closed the day on Monday, I was back at the desk
watching game tape and taking notes.
This is what I got this week. Hope it helps. Good luck!
Best Bets (Last Week 0-3; Season 0-3)
1) SINGLE BET
HOU -12
--> I normally shy away from big spreads. Especially when they deal
with division rivals. No matter the difference in talent, division
rivals always play tough (re: CLE vs BAL last night). However, I stick
to my process. And my reviewing of game tape has told me that there
exists a big divide between TEN and HOU. I argued that HOU has the
best offense in the league before the season starts. From what I've
seen, I feel even more confident about that statement. And though I
picked TEN to upset DET, upon further review of that team, I'm
convinced that they are a bad team masquerading as a decent team. I
think this game is 30-13.
One stat to back up the prediction: TEN has given up at least 4 TDs a
game. They have scored a total of 4 offensive TDs for the season. Bad
math for TEN fans.
2) PARLAY:
CAR/ATL Over 48.5
NO/GB Over 54.5
NYG/PHI Over 47
--> Talk about getting what the doctor ordered to cure your ills. CAR
gets to go against a very suspect run defense down in the Georgia
Dome. Expect TDs in that game on the ground from Cam. GB gets to take
out their frustrations from Monday night on the worst defense in the
league. Aaron rodgers might have 4 passing TDs in the first half. And
PHI gets to wipe the stink fro the ARI game by taking deep shots on a
hurt NYG secondary.
MoneyLine UPSET SPECIAL (Last Week 2-0; Season 2-0)
MIA +220
WAS +140
--> I'm not sold on ARI. I know they are playing solid. And they are
the hottest team in football with an underrated defense. They could
indeed be this year's version of SF 2011. But I think at some point
the plug will come out, the lights will go on, the jig will be up etc.
and why not MIA? They are one make able FG from riding a 2 game
winning streak. Plus I feel MIA defense is every bit as good. Look for
an ugly game. MIA 17 - ARI 16.
WAS as an upset is mainly because I am predicting an RG 3 bounce back.
WAS will contend for the last playoff spot in the NFC. TB will not.
And bettors note: it's always good to take a road dog when the home
team can never sellout a game.
SURVIVOR Pick (Last Week 0-1; Season 0-1)
--> 3 weeks, 3 strikes. I'm already out of my survivor pool. Again, I
re-emphasize I have no edge when it comes to this. But since I
started, I'll keep it going. GB is the call. Rodgers won't let them
start 1-3.
-N8-
The Bookie's Bookie #1
09/21/2012
FIRST THINGS FIRST: DON'T WAFFLE
Remember that commercial with Brett Favre. The one where he is buying a large screen TV. And he keeps flip flopping between two competing sets. He can't make up his mind, choosing one and then instantly reconsidering. Yet, the joke of the spot is his line of dialogue: "I hate it when people waffle." We all hate it when people waffle. And we experience them all the time. There's the waffler who finally gets to front of the line and still doesn't know what he wants to order even though the menu is limited to burgers and fries. Or the waffler on the freeway who jumps across one lane in stop-and-go traffic, just to skip back over before you can pass because that lane isn't moving either. Or my all-time favorite waffler, the friend who "doesn't care" where we go to hang out but as soon as we get there says "man, I didn't want to come here." The funniest waffler I've known was a friend who when we went CD shopping would instantly grab an arms full of CDs as we walked down the aisles. And then as we got closer to check-out, he would systematically discard CDs, one-by-one convincing himself that he didn't want them. Wafflers. No one likes them. Especially not the football gambling gods!
If there is one hard rule to learn when it comes to football betting it is: DON'T WAFFLE. Actually it applies to all other areas of life pretty well: buying a car, approaching a woman, selecting the perfect tie. You can't second guess yourself. Go with your gut. It is all that matters at the end of the day. Does it mean that you will always be right? Does it mean you'll buy the best car for you, score your dream girl's digits and match that double-breasted, tailored 2-piece with the perfect windsor? Who knows...No matter what you decide to do in anything, the best you will always have is a 50-50 shot. It either works out or it doesn't. There is no in between. Which means when you go with your gut at least you satisfy what's more important than being right. And that isbelieving in yourself.
When betting on the NFL, nothing is more perilous than second-guessing yourself. It takes courage to stand by what you predict. And takes even more to put your hard-earned money behind that prediction. You can read all the insiders tips, listen to what your buddies say (or in my case, my football guru of a chick) and you watch all the shows on the NFL Network, but in the end it comes to your own gut. And once you make up your mind. Once you say, I really like GB -3 or MIN +7.5, then go with it. Don't be swayed. Waffling costs.
Take my weekly wednesday trip to LV. This week the gambling gods smite me hard for my waffling. Here I was, doing all my research on said football guru chick's iPad at the LVH casino (formerly the Las Vegas Hilton), scribbling in multiple entry tickets for the SuperContest cauz I couldn't decide on my fifth game. 7, count it, 7 different forms I filled out and tossed cause I kept debating, kept second-guessing, kept waffling. All this did was eat up energy, make me doubt my four solid picks and most importantly kill time. I look up and have my "oh shit" moment: I have to get to the airport in 18 minutes for my flight and I haven't made any bets yet. So I panic. I start to dash. Two more scribbled and tossed entry forms before I finally settle on one. Quickly, I jot down all the numbers for the bets I promised to make for folks. I haphazardly and almost unconfidently select my B.O.W (bet of the week) and dash to the counter to place them. I look over my tickets make sure they match. Grab my bag and fly to the exit. Hop in a cab, tell the cabbie to step on it. Get through to the terminal and make it right to the gate just before final boarding call. I get to my seat, relax a little bit, "job well done, Nate." And then think to shut down the iPad for the flight when I realize,... uh oh,... I don't have the iPad. It's not in my bag. Not in my hand. It's...yes...damn it...its gone. Left behind. An effect of the mad dash. The resulting action of when someone waffles. Bum-mer.
The lesson learned in all of it: don't second guess yourself. Predicting the future is not a 100% guarantee... ever. In fact you will be more wrong than right. The key: go with what you believe. Cauz sooner or later you'll be right at the right time. And the gambling gods won't take an iPad as punishment :-)
Good luck. Choose wisely. And have fun.
The most solid plays this week:
1) 6-point 3 team teaser
SF +.5
ATL +9
NE +9
--> This is a no-brainer. I'm regretting that I didn't make this play at all in Vegas. I think MIN plays SF tight because both teams rely heavy on run-game, accurate passing and sound tackling. Its just that MIN doesn't excel in any of those but the first. As for NE and ATL, anytime you get 2 super bowl potentials as underdogs, take 'em. ATL and NE aren't going to be underdogs more than 3 times apiece this year. Grab em while you can.
2) PHI -3
--> I know, I know, everyone thinks I am a homer. Or that I am crazy. No way PHI goes to desert and fly by the suddenly vaulted defense of ARI. Well this was the only game that I really got a chance to look at game tape. And I believe that this is a true mismatch. The team speed of PHI at the skill positions will be difficult for ARI to control. Though I don't see PHI scoring 30+ per se, I do see them having at least 3 offensive TDs and a couple of FG tries. And mark my words, from what I have seen, PHI def is not what Kevin Kolb wants to see. Especially he finds himself down a couple of scores early. Could be a 6 sacks, 1 fumble lost, 1 INT game for the former bird. Oh and that INT has to go to Rodgers-Cromartie.
3) ATL/SD Over 47.5
--> Two near-elite QBs. Loads of skill position talent. Shaky run defenses. And bright Southern California sun. All equals shootout in my mind. Easy bet. Also, heavy consideration to money line play of ATL +155. I think ATL takes a September sweep of the AFC West to open 3-0. I mean, honestly, a Norv Turner team can't open 3-0. I mean, c'mon.
UPSET MoneyLine SPECIAL
JAC +3
TEN +3.5
--> It's the week that the AFC south gets some love. It could be the worst division in football. No doubts about that. But JAC poor performance against elite HOU is not telling of the whole team. They get back on track with a team that is limited in talent as well in IND. The TEN pick is a gamble. Yeah, I know, they look like shit these first two weeks. First NE and then SD. And i'm not saying that I think they beat DET. But I do feel that they will play them close at home. And that DET isn't as good as the public thinks and TEN is not as bad. When picking upsets you just need the right match ups and proper circumstances. TEN is due for a good performance from their running game. And DET run D is seriously bad. I say pick it. It's a long shot and unconventional. But pick it.
Survivor Pool
Um, I have no edge when it comes to this. 2 weeks into the season, and I am already on my 2nd strike in my pool. But if I am pressed to pick one solid winner, and I am to stay alive then I'm picking SF. Again, I think MIN puts up a fight. But not any closer power to finish off best team in the league.
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